Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 64 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1205 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 132 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 132 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $124k → $4.8k → $2.6k → $5.1k → $2.5k → $2.2k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,247)
Top 5% $757k (exactly $757,042)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 175
Announced 132
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 56,781 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Plebby Quest: The Crusades older $19.99 2,625 86% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) PiedPipers Team
Vagrus - The Riven Realms older $29.99 1,746 84% 52k $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) Lost Pilgrims Studio
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Dead Reckoning: The Long Drift · EA $14.99 174 83% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Garan Lorn
Spear Song · EA $14.99 170 88% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Divovision Games
Choice of Life: Wild Islands $6.99 342 92% 10k $72k (exactly $71,717) Blazing Planet Studio
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.