Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Survival game?

Survival + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 113 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 233 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×188 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 233 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 233 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $8.2k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $2.7k → $716 → $1.6k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,147)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $118,141)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 413
Announced 233
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Choose Your Own Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 8,531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $5.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 233 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
The Walking Dead older $14.99 53,650 97% 1.6M $24M (exactly $24,126,405) Telltale Games
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
The Walking Dead: Season Two older $14.99 26,848 96% 805k $12M (exactly $12,073,546) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: A New Frontier older $14.99 15,482 83% 464k $7.0M (exactly $6,962,255) Telltale Games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
The Walking Dead: Michonne - A Telltale Miniseries older $14.99 6,047 80% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,719,336) Telltale Games
Directive 8020 $49.99 1,337 63% 40k $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099) Supermassive Games
Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 $29.99 521 86% 16k $469k (exactly $468,744) Digixart
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
City 20 · EA $19.99 197 72% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Untold Games
Dead in Antares $19.99 189 77% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Ishtar Games
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Choice of Life: Wild Islands $6.99 342 92% 10k $72k (exactly $71,717) Blazing Planet Studio
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.