Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Shooter?

Shooter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 37 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $860, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $30k, ×49 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 58 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 58 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $330 → $1.2k → $3.8k → $980 → $240 → $860 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $860 (exactly $860)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,580)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 126
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 411 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $860, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DayZ 2018 · $582M Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M To Be or Not to Be 2022 · $3.1M 轮回修仙路 2023 · $1.5M SEX with HITLER 2022 · $704k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
To Be or Not to Be older $12.99 8,035 89% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) Team K
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Xenus 2. White gold. older $14.99 268 76% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Deep Shadows
CALL OF LDPR older $9.99 222 74% 6.7k $67k (exactly $66,533) Mehsoft
Rabbit Hole older $7.99 264 78% 7.9k $63k (exactly $63,281) Nikita Ustinov, Nikolay Lazarev
Grand Pigeon's Duty older $3.99 448 76% 13k $54k (exactly $53,626) WolfgangIs
Deliria $9.99 136 61% 4.1k $41k (exactly $40,759) Linesway
Absolute-Full-Life $14.99 68 76% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) The Only Way Out
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
Demonslayer AKA Me $7.99 34 73% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) 晶尘工作室
Byte The Bullet $5.99 38 92% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) Esteban Marin
Trash Horror Collection 5 $4.99 44 54% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) 616 GAMES
The Armed Shadow $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Roten · EA $9.99 13 76% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) SolarBlue

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.