Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Choices Matter game?

Online Co-Op + Choices Matter

Of 82 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 194 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×763 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 194 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 194 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $6.6k → $91k → $7.3k → $12k → $4.2k → $807 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,984)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 162
Announced 194
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Action, Character Customization
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 38,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 194 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Insurgency: Sandstorm older $29.99 104,168 85% 3.1M $94M (exactly $93,719,950) New World Interactive
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
Solasta: Crown of the Magister older $29.99 19,680 87% 590k $18M (exactly $17,706,096) Tactical Adventures
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Monster Prom older $11.99 12,245 93% 367k $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) Beautiful Glitch
Ember Knights older $19.99 6,065 93% 182k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,180) Doom Turtle
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
BOMBANANA! $7.99 2,360 96% 71k $566k (exactly $565,692) Lefto Studio
Love Begins With Goodbye $15.99 973 94% 29k $467k (exactly $466,748) 大王工作室, 框嗒网络

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.