Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Cats

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cat Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Cats

Only 14 developers shipped a Cat Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Only Way is Down, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.8k against a market of $480. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 21 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Cats
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $2.0k → $3.6k → $2.9k
Outcomes for Perma Death + Cats: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,059)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 40
Announced 21
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Cats
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Platformer, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 336 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Tallowmere 2: Curse of the Kittens older $9.99 318 80% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,305) Chris McFarland
Only Way is Down $9.99 137 63% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) Jilted Generation Productions
Time Snatcher Handy $9.99 88 96% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) PulleyBun, ClockworkCats
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations
Jones On Fire older $2.99 89 80% 2.7k $8.0k (exactly $7,983) Glass Bottom Games
Let It Go - How to realize your dreams older $9.99 20 100% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Philozofia Studio
Коты Воители older $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Ioaan Prepodobniy
Meowmunitions $12.99 10 50% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Pete Karesisto
Unification · EA older $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Troy Spencer
BitRick's Venture $4.99 24 100% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Kakapo Devs
Kitty Rush $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) DFS
Three Sisters · EA $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) CFG Studios
UwU Hunter $3.69 12 91% 360 $1.3k (exactly $1,328) ZuggtGames
Armed Animals RPG $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) Strejda Jenda Productions
The Last of the 9 Lives $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) 5 Years Now

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.