Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Survival game?

Survival + Card Game

Of 81 developers who shipped a Card Game Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 133 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 133 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 133 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $449 → $599 → $6.6k → $13k → $2.2k → $449 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $129k (exactly $128,991)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 175
Announced 133
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Resource Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,105 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $840, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 133 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Ratropolis older $17.99 5,187 87% 156k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,424) Cassel Games
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Warlords Under Siege $9.99 436 77% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) RedKar Devs
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
These Doomed Isles $14.99 180 66% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Triplevision Games Limited
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Choice of Life: Wild Islands $6.99 342 92% 10k $72k (exactly $71,717) Blazing Planet Studio
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Drunken Rogue $9.99 194 94% 5.8k $58k (exactly $58,142) 2.6 billion years studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.