Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Card Game

Of 120 developers who shipped a Card Game Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×560 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 215 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 215 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $54k → $2.8k → $4.3k → $9.9k → $3.1k → $419 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Top 5% $352k (exactly $351,609)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 296
Announced 215
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 9,656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings $24.99 469 74% 14k $352k (exactly $351,609) Palindrome Interactive
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Big Winner $12.99 550 82% 17k $214k (exactly $214,335) iFAction Studio
LUNA $12.99 526 78% 16k $205k (exactly $204,982) Hypnosis Lab, WorkNite Games
Three Kingdoms: The Blood Moon $8.99 746 91% 22k $201k (exactly $201,196) Kygua Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.