Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Card Game?

Perma Death + Card Game

Of 81 developers who shipped a Perma Death Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 137 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×6.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×452 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 137 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 137 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $151k → $599 → $24k → $9.7k → $6.6k → $897 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,136)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 145
Announced 137
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.40

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$8.40 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.40.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,104 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 137 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M Card Survival: Tropical Island 2022 · $2.2M Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M SpellRogue 2025 · $939k Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Lost For Swords $9.99 248 89% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) MaxBytes
Montabi $19.99 123 95% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) Mankibo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.