Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Card Battler

Of 110 developers who shipped a Card Battler Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 177 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 177 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 177 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $49k → $1.6k → $5.1k → $7.8k → $2.1k → $3.4k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,784)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 261
Announced 177
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Card Battler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.90 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.90 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 177 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Big Winner $12.99 550 82% 17k $214k (exactly $214,335) iFAction Studio
LUNA $12.99 526 78% 16k $205k (exactly $204,982) Hypnosis Lab, WorkNite Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.