Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Capitalism

Only 19 developers shipped a Capitalist Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Iced Latte With Your Breast Milk, Please!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $87k, ×184 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $1.6k → $4.1k → $7.0k → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $87,512)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 58
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Economy, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 947 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $87k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
小白兔电商~Bunny e-Shop older $10.99 9,176 93% 275k $3.0M (exactly $3,025,327) 落叶岛项目组, 橘子班
Miracle Snack Shop older $9.99 2,150 97% 65k $644k (exactly $644,355) TALESSHOP Co., Ltd.
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Wolf of Stock Street older $10.99 878 77% 26k $289k (exactly $289,477) 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer
Internet Cafe Evolution older $14.99 606 74% 18k $273k (exactly $272,518) Tiny Flame Games
Skull Island: Rise of Kong older $39.99 153 35% 4.6k $184k (exactly $183,554) IguanaBee
One Iced Latte With Your Breast Milk, Please! $9.99 292 83% 8.8k $88k (exactly $87,512) azaly, nemuaki
Vertical Slice: A Game Dev Story older $9.99 287 65% 8.6k $86k (exactly $86,014) DarkKnight
九州:立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Sloppy Fields · EA $9.79 201 95% 6.0k $59k (exactly $59,034) PixelPanzone
UltraGirl Alters $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) FutureInvention
Kinky Cosplay Heroes $19.99 35 77% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Sexy Hentai Games Factory
Sky Harvest · EA $7.99 79 84% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Armored Cat
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay
My Secretary Bird $5.99 23 65% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) artoonu
EmpireX - Business, Real Estate and Crime Simulator $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) darkwolf66
Office Ladies™ $8.99 11 100% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) ORGON® Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.