Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Dating Sim?

Building + Dating Sim

Of 28 developers who shipped a Building Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $85k, ×135 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $19k; 1 in 20 cleared $36M, ×57349 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 61 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 134.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 61 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $137k → $2.4M → $80k → $89k → $35k → $86k (still earning) → $47k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $19k (exactly $18,936)
Median $85k (exactly $84,530)
Top 25% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Top 5% $36M (exactly $36,014,994)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 72
Announced 61
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Sandbox
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 128,799 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $85k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $36M.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 4 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  10. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  11. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds32 devs · median $51k · 75 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Tamer: King of Dinosaurs · EA $24.99 347 86% 10k $260k (exactly $260,146) Ride the Lion Studios
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.