Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Building game?

Building + Crime

Only 13 developers shipped a Crime Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Schedule I, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $55k, ×88 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $170M, ×275918 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 88.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 52 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $328k → $13k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $13k (exactly $12,592)
Median $55k (exactly $55,390)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,334)
Top 5% $173M (exactly $173,276,718)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 34
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Simulation, Action
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 292,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $55k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $170M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds32 devs · median $51k · 75 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Definitely Not Fried Chicken older $24.99 2,161 72% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,620,102) Dope Games
Basement older $19.99 1,684 76% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Halfbus
Constructor older $29.99 698 77% 21k $628k (exactly $627,991) System 3
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Shakedown: Hawaii older $19.99 645 90% 19k $387k (exactly $386,806) Vblank Entertainment, Inc.
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Weed Shop 2 older $9.99 845 86% 25k $253k (exactly $253,246) ADhD Studios
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry $12.99 399 81% 12k $155k (exactly $155,490) Ritual Interactive
I Know a Guy: Shady Life Simulator · EA $12.99 398 90% 12k $155k (exactly $155,101) Bunch'o'Nerds
Scam Center Simulator: UnderKingdom · EA $10.99 168 75% 5.0k $55k (exactly $55,390) Jiao Games
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
WeedEx: Drug Express Delivery · EA $3.99 108 67% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,928) CGI LAB GAMES
Schedule Store Simulator · EA $14.99 28 92% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) Alkame Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.