Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Survival game?

Survival + Board Game

Of 35 developers who shipped a Board Game Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $300 → $719 → $3.5k → $1.9k → $358 (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,872)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,853)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 97
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Board Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 2,241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Cut That Wire $6.99 243 84% 7.3k $51k (exactly $50,957) WakaStudio
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Deadly Trick · EA $8.99 141 95% 4.2k $38k (exactly $38,028) Finalblow Co.
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Neuroshima Hex $9.99 93 72% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Baked Games
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.