Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike Deckbuilder › Roguelike Deckbuilder + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Board Game

Of 62 developers who shipped a Board Game Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×22 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 82 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 82 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $25k → $159k → $11k → $27k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,011)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,946)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 101
Announced 82
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder, Board Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 9,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M Hand of Fate 2 2017 · $4.7M StarVaders 2025 · $2.8M Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M Vault of the Void 2022 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) older $9.99 1,266 54% 38k $379k (exactly $379,420) CD PROJEKT RED
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Lost In Fantaland $13.99 631 84% 19k $265k (exactly $264,831) Supernature Studio
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Trizon $8.99 589 92% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Ling
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.