Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Shooter?

Shooter + Base Building

Of 119 developers who shipped a Base Building Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 292 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×13730 the market median. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 292 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 380% on the market, 292 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 119
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $3.1k → $599 → $450 → $899 → $10k → $3.6k (still earning) → $540 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 119
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,713)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487)
Developers, 2 yr 119
Released games 325
Announced 292
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 562,735 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 292 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.