Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Automobile Sim Third-Person Shooter?

Automobile Sim + Third-Person Shooter

Only 18 developers shipped an Automobile Sim Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480. 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $1.7k → $597 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 5% $190M (exactly $189,642,365)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 37
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Third-Person Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Racing, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 213,698 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $960, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $180M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Driver® Parallel Lines older $9.99 1,496 89% 45k $448k (exactly $448,351) Ubisoft Reflections
WARMA · EA older $9.99 184 51% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) BA.D
Mad Combat Marines older $4.99 327 68% 9.8k $49k (exactly $48,952) Nightbinder
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
Captain Gazman Day Of The Rage $6.99 31 96% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewe… (Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewerk 'Bewegungsdruiden')
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday
Open Robot $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Loomeit Studios
TONK · EA $3.99 22 77% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) YourAverageOtter
Under Destruction · EA $18.99 3 66% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Quantum Dynamics
The Long Drive Badland $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) TinyBig
中国式富豪 $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) 大米粥工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.