Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Sports

Of 123 developers who shipped a Sports Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1416 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 125 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 125 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $3.2k → $1.0k → $2.1k → $2.5k → $1.9k → $2.7k (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,852)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 515
Announced 125
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Sports; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Simulation, Driving
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 163,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
CarX Drift Racing Online older $16.99 82,720 95% 2.5M $42M (exactly $42,162,384) CarX Technologies, LLC
Assetto Corsa Competizione older $39.99 33,807 92% 1.0M $41M (exactly $40,558,258) Kunos Simulazioni
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
JDM: Japanese Drift Master $34.99 5,217 75% 157k $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) Gaming Factory
NASCAR 25 $39.99 1,768 72% 53k $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070) iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, LLC
Project Motor Racing $39.99 1,181 45% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) Straight4 Studios
CarX Drift Racing Online 2 · EA $24.99 1,222 71% 37k $916k (exactly $916,133) CarX Technologies, LLC
iRacing Arcade $24.99 1,199 72% 36k $899k (exactly $898,890) Original Fire Games, iRacing

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.