Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Sandbox

Of 79 developers who shipped a Sandbox Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.5M, ×6380 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 116 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $341k → $1.5k → $32k → $19k → $24k → $9.0k (still earning) → $47k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Median $16k (exactly $15,912)
Top 25% $384k (exactly $384,266)
Top 5% $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 219
Announced 116
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Open World, Simulation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 442,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $380k, 1 in 20 over $9.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
CarX Drift Racing Online older $16.99 82,720 95% 2.5M $42M (exactly $42,162,384) CarX Technologies, LLC
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Docked $29.99 1,210 72% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,637) Saber Interactive
City Car Driving 2.0 · EA $29.99 1,198 60% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,077,841) Forward Development, Ltd.
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.