Do I ship it?

Games › Automobile Sim › Automobile Sim + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + RPG

Of 23 developers who shipped an RPG Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $22M, ×15301 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $1.8k → $539 → $3.8k → $19k → $1.5k → $14k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,235)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,349)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $22,921,415)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 96
Announced 35
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Driving, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 108,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $22M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Mad Max 2015 · $35M Mafia II (Classic) 2011 · $33M Tokyo Xtreme Racer 2025 · $23M Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator 2023 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
EmergeNYC · EA older $24.99 3,760 64% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) FlipSwitch Games
Lumberjack's Dynasty older $19.99 2,358 72% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,414,093) UMEO Studios
TT Isle of Man: Ride on the Edge 2 older $29.99 1,111 82% 33k $1.0M (exactly $999,567) KT Racing
Car Mechanic Simulator 2014 older $6.99 4,042 82% 121k $848k (exactly $847,607) Red Dot Games
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Flatinside Simulator · EA $9.99 64 64% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SncI Studios
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
Smart Farm $8.99 59 77% 1.8k $16k (exactly $15,912) ZD Games
Truck Driver: The American Dream $19.99 23 43% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Kyodai
City Bus Simulator 2026 $11.99 35 34% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,590) KODOBUR
Hounimal $8.99 15 100% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) TONTORO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.