Do I ship it?

Games › Automobile Sim › Automobile Sim + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Modern

Of 27 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×7.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×6883 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 37 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 37 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $7.6k → $38k → $5.9M → $4.6k → $60k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,599)
Median $11k (exactly $10,796)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $60,014)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,310,721)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 87
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Driving, Immersive Sim, Simulation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 47,572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RoadCraft 2025 · $16M Car For Sale Simulator 2024 · $10M Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown 2024 · $9.8M Car Dealer Simulator 2025 · $5.9M Bus Simulator 21 Next Stop 2021 · $3.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Bus Simulator 21 Next Stop older $24.99 3,984 74% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,986,805) stillalive studios
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios
CityDriver older $29.99 797 43% 24k $717k (exactly $717,061) ViewApp
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
Rent A Car Simulator 24 $12.99 154 53% 4.6k $60k (exactly $60,014) 2MEDYA
SEX Route 69 $9.99 126 63% 3.8k $38k (exactly $37,762) Play and Cum 💦
Jeepney Simulator 2 $8.99 119 91% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) Spacezero Interactive
Car Factory Empire · EA $8.99 48 56% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) RDS Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.