Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Local Co-Op

Only 11 developers shipped a Local Co-Op Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Delta Manager, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 435% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $150 → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $959 (exactly $959)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $10,912)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 32
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 435% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Local Co-Op
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 90% positive over 53 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
TRAIL OUT older $19.99 3,019 81% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,810,494) GOOD BOYS
Barro older $4.99 3,253 85% 98k $487k (exactly $486,974) SC Jogos
BlazeRush older $9.99 1,031 88% 31k $309k (exactly $308,991) Targem Games
Super Indie Karts · EA older $19.99 453 80% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) One Legged Seagull
Réussir : Code de la Route - Nouvelle Édition (French Highway Code) older $14.99 500 88% 15k $225k (exactly $224,850) Smart Tale Games
Barro GT older $4.99 817 84% 25k $122k (exactly $122,305) SC Jogos
Barro F22 older $4.99 621 84% 19k $93k (exactly $92,964) SC Jogos
First Racer older $4.99 350 91% 11k $52k (exactly $52,395) Perfect Games
Delta Manager · EA $12.99 28 92% 840 $11k (exactly $10,912) Fassi Blue
F2D - Steer To Persevere $9.99 16 100% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Zyg Studios
Retrowave Barro Crazy Drift $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) thinfat
Sky Combat: WWII Warplane Races · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hard Shark Games
Fun Road $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) RMIT
Vagnerun $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Vagner da Rocha Santos
Automata Streetcar · EA $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Raymond Lewis
Combat Rally · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Walter Bonacci
Off-Road Pumpkin Carriage $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) NoraPerikaProject
Rally TS $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 1337Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.