Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Horror

Only 10 developers shipped a Horror Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Le Mans Ultimate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.0k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 20 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.9k → $2.1k
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $70,153)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,077,080)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 36
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 33,238 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
FlatOut 3: Chaos & Destruction older $9.99 3,672 17% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,100,498) Team 6 Studios
World of Subways 4 – New York Line 7 older $19.99 302 70% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) TML-Studios
World of Subways 2 – Berlin Line 7 older $14.99 301 75% 9.0k $135k (exactly $135,360) TML-Studios
SIMULACRA 3 older $9.99 328 56% 9.8k $98k (exactly $98,302) Kaigan Games
Nightmare Drive · EA $14.99 156 78% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Voidfiller
New York Bus Simulator older $9.99 99 49% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,670) TML-Studios
GAI Stops Auto: Right Version Simulator older $2.99 287 85% 8.6k $26k (exactly $25,744) Axyos Games, Feas
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
Into the End (of the World) · EA $14.99 9 55% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) RabbiX Games
The Vanishing Train | ワンマン列車 $2.99 42 66% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) RAYBIS GAMES
5番線おじさん救出編 Platform 5 Dungeons $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA, SHINISE GAMES
4番線 | Platform 4 $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA
8th Avenue $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) No Mad Studio
Lawnmower Game Horrorland $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.