Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Destruction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Destruction

Of 22 developers who shipped a Destruction Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×3909 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Destruction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $52k → $29k → $898 → $1.8k → $5.9M → $1.9k → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Destruction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,709)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,348)
Top 5% $5.9M (exactly $5,855,227)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 102
Announced 44
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Destruction; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Racing, Simulation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 21,526 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Clustertruck older $14.99 14,706 93% 441k $6.6M (exactly $6,613,288) Landfall
Wreckfest 2 · EA $34.99 5,578 73% 167k $5.9M (exactly $5,855,227) Bugbear
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
FlatOut 4: Total Insanity VR · EA $19.99 415 88% 12k $249k (exactly $248,875) Mutar, Flat2VR Spark
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
KILLDOZER · EA $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Rename For Value
Speed Demons 2 $14.99 26 92% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Radiangames
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Screw Drivers $7.99 39 74% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Creactstudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.