Do I ship it?

Games › Automobile Sim › Automobile Sim + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Crime

Only 16 developers shipped a Crime Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×4.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $180M, ×126597 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 28 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $238 → $104k → $688k → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 25% $307k (exactly $306,627)
Top 5% $190M (exactly $189,642,365)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 33
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 213,146 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $300k, 1 in 20 over $180M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced 2025 · $190M Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M Mafia II (Classic) 2011 · $33M Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022 · $23M Need for Speed™ Most Wanted 2020 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Autobahn Police Simulator 2 older $19.99 760 54% 23k $456k (exactly $455,772) Z-Software
Driver® Parallel Lines older $9.99 1,496 89% 45k $448k (exactly $448,351) Ubisoft Reflections
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Toll Booth Simulator $12.99 91 71% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) SifDev
PAKO 4 · EA $9.99 23 91% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Tree Men Games
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
The Wanted 3 $8.99 13 61% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) 瑶颜游戏
Low and Furious · EA $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Code IT Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.