Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Combat Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Racing Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Combat Racing

Of 71 developers who shipped a Combat Racing Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 106 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 106 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Combat Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $624 → $449 → $2.4k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $240 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Combat Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 5% $432k (exactly $431,892)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 263
Announced 106
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Combat Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle physics plus weapons and AI drivers

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Combat Racing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Racing, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 23,466 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
Wreckfest 2 · EA $34.99 5,578 73% 167k $5.9M (exactly $5,855,227) Bugbear
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
GRID Legends older $59.99 2,952 76% 89k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,714) Codemasters
Burnout™ Paradise Remastered older $19.99 7,348 64% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,406,596) Stellar Entertainment, Criterion Games
FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage Collector's Edition older $19.99 6,747 89% 202k $4.0M (exactly $4,046,176) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Recharge: Room Games · EA $19.99 313 67% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Room Games
Jeepney Simulator 2 $8.99 119 91% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) Spacezero Interactive
CyberTaxi: Lunatic Nights · EA $13.99 68 55% 2.0k $29k (exactly $28,540) Hed Media Games
DriveCrazy $10.99 73 94% 2.2k $24k (exactly $24,068) TubezGames
Car Factory Empire · EA $8.99 48 56% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) RDS Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.