Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Collectathon

Only 14 developers shipped a Collectathon Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, I Need to Fix My Dream Car (But I Work at a Junkyard), made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $42k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.6k → $449 → $1.5k → $269 (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Top 5% $43k (exactly $42,867)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $64.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $64.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 208 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $42k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Garbage Truck Simulator older $8.99 166 71% 5.0k $45k (exactly $44,770) Darius Bode
I Need to Fix My Dream Car (But I Work at a Junkyard) $12.99 110 82% 3.3k $43k (exactly $42,867) GameFactory, Kai
Japanese Rail Sim: Hakone Town of Natural Beauty and Hot Springs $49.99 20 75% 600 $30k (exactly $29,994) Sonic Powered Co.,Ltd.
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Minit Fun Racer older $2.99 253 97% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,694) JW, Kitty, Jukio, Dom
Space Ribbon - Slipstream to the Extreme older $3.99 71 57% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Onteca Ltd
AE86 EUROBEAT DRIFT older $9.99 27 88% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) deadworld games
The Legend of Bear-Truck Trucker older $4.99 52 98% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Captain Games
Drift Phonk 666 older $0.99 245 89% 7.4k $7.3k (exactly $7,276) deadworld games
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
5番線おじさん救出編 Platform 5 Dungeons $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA, SHINISE GAMES
Evel Knievel $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Barnstorm Games
GMH - Good Morning Human ! $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) W-9000 Studio
Lawnmower game Ufo Chase 2 $1.99 10 80% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Valkeala Software
Rust Runners $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Peter Shushmaruk
Rooooomba Simulator!! $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Dream_Of_Guineapigs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.