Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Choices Matter

Of 25 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $37k, ×25 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $4.3k → $38k → $7.7k → $1.6k → $597 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,447)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,762)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 71
Announced 43
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Driving, Immersive Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
Food Truck Simulator older $19.99 1,106 68% 33k $663k (exactly $663,268) DRAGO entertainment
Revhead older $19.99 597 80% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) Creative Pudding Hungary Llc.
Réussir : Code de la Route - Nouvelle Édition (French Highway Code) older $14.99 500 88% 15k $225k (exactly $224,850) Smart Tale Games
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
80's OVERDRIVE older $9.99 502 77% 15k $150k (exactly $150,449) Insane Code
Car Trader Simulator · EA older $9.99 475 72% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Live Motion Games
SIMULACRA 3 older $9.99 328 56% 9.8k $98k (exactly $98,302) Kaigan Games
SEX Route 69 $9.99 126 63% 3.8k $38k (exactly $37,762) Play and Cum 💦
I Want to Believe $16.99 47 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $23,956) Fang's Lab
Car Factory Empire · EA $8.99 48 56% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) RDS Games
My Sleeper · EA $16.99 24 83% 720 $12k (exactly $12,233) ifjuliopepe
My Car My Life · EA $1.99 171 98% 5.1k $10k (exactly $10,209) Noguiin
onRails $34.99 9 100% 270 $9.4k (exactly $9,447) Monkey Face Software LLC
Pocket and Zooom $15.99 16 75% 480 $7.7k (exactly $7,675) TechnoBrain
The Vanishing Train | ワンマン列車 $2.99 42 66% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) RAYBIS GAMES
Push It! $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) NeuroSlop Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.