Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Assassins

Only 6 developers shipped an Assassin Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLACKWOOD, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.4k against a market of $1.5k. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $227k (exactly $226,687)
Top 5% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 30
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney•Pixar Cars older $19.99 1,940 89% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,418) Beenox
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Frenzy VR · EA older $14.99 205 60% 6.2k $92k (exactly $92,188) Innoverse Ltd
Dead Second older $14.99 47 87% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Spunge Games Pty Ltd
Kate: Collateral Damage older $7.99 82 92% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Ludic Studios
Agent 01 older $19.99 8 75% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) GamesBraz
Hacker Man older $19.99 8 12% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) GamesBraz
Frog Demon older $4.99 30 43% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) White Dog Games
Chess Knights: High Noon older $2.99 35 77% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Minimol Games
Subzero Stealth · EA $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Verona Interactive
Shuriken Practice 3 $7.99 1 0% 30 $240 (exactly $240) myBad Studios
SZX $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Venagon
Suqare: Hired Gun $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 2102 Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.