Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Artificial Intelligence

Of 55 developers who shipped an AI Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×164 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 78 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 78 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.8k → $76k → $3.6k → $4.8k → $11k → $180 (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,912)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 176
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,526 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Field of Glory: Empires older $39.99 734 81% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Ageod
Galactic Civilizations® II: Ultimate Edition older $9.99 955 80% 29k $286k (exactly $286,214) Stardock Entertainment
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Twilight Wars $14.99 229 74% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Comrade Bear Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
I'm Not Sex King $10.99 147 76% 4.4k $48k (exactly $48,466) Sex King
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
Until Chloe, the New Wife, Falls $11.99 65 63% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,380) StudioVR
DAICE $14.99 49 95% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Aeterna Ludi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.