Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Space Sim?

Space Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Only 15 developers shipped an AI Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpaceBourne 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 305% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 305% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $239 → $2.4k → $540 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,216)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 51
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 305% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 5,139 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $240, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Redout 2 older $19.99 1,168 82% 35k $700k (exactly $700,450) 34BigThings srl
Wayward Terran Frontier: Zero Falls · EA older $29.99 487 66% 15k $438k (exactly $438,154) Reason Generator Inc.
Starmancer · EA older $14.99 891 61% 27k $401k (exactly $400,683) Ominux Games
Space Simulation Toolkit · EA older $24.99 500 80% 15k $375k (exactly $374,850) Pavel Kudinov
orbit.industries older $19.99 70 57% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) LAB132
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
soul Interface · EA $12.99 25 76% 750 $9.7k (exactly $9,742) soulless technologies
Disinfection · EA older $10.99 26 69% 780 $8.6k (exactly $8,572) Evil Turtle Productions
Universal Combat CE older $9.99 25 76% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) 3000AD
Hotloop $2.99 47 85% 1.4k $4.2k (exactly $4,216) Tntlaxy GDS
Max Savage $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Tim Rachor
Ironseed 2 : Consensus $15.99 5 80% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Robert Morgan
Planet Keeper Program $5.99 9 100% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Robo-Human Studios
Ironseed 3 : Vigil $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Robert Morgan
Galactic Sanctuaries $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) ADC
Command Reboot $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) 厦门必虎网络科技有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.