Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Of 116 developers who shipped an AI Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $320. Revenue is up 290% on the market; 86 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 86 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $13k → $748 → $2.3k → $1.3k → $8.4k → $5.0k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $314 (exactly $314)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,284)
Top 5% $382k (exactly $381,795)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 227
Announced 86
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$8.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 13,678 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE $14.99 4,131 89% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) IT'S A TRAP
Inari older $14.99 2,387 94% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,434) Seikou Soft.
AI2U: With You 'Til The End $14.99 2,073 87% 62k $932k (exactly $932,228) AlterStaff Inc.
AV Director Life! $29.99 661 85% 20k $595k (exactly $594,702) TeamKRAMA
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
My sexy Neighbour 2 $14.99 849 67% 25k $382k (exactly $381,795) Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Heatwave: Sam's Stay $11.99 650 94% 20k $234k (exactly $233,805) CodyFord
Burning Boundaries Part 1 $14.99 482 86% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) T4bbo
SPITE: Taking the Boss's Wife, Sister and Mother $7.99 770 82% 23k $185k (exactly $184,569) DIAMOND VISUAL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.