Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Archery Survival game?

Survival + Archery

Only 17 developers shipped an Archery Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Last King, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×9.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is up 795% on the market; 45 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 795% on the market, 45 announced, ×9.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.6k → $3.3k → $719 → $119 → $31k
Outcomes for Survival + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,863)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 55
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 795% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Archery; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, PvP
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Robin Hood - Sherwood Builders older $29.99 1,020 68% 31k $918k (exactly $917,694) MeanAstronauts
Oh Deer older $9.99 2,125 84% 64k $637k (exactly $636,862) Cozy Cabin Studios
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Eden Island older $14.99 232 58% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Moon Studio
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
HG Adventure · EA older $13.99 132 88% 4.0k $55k (exactly $55,400) 皓际
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie
Survivor - Castaway Island older $24.99 53 37% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Magic Pockets
Native Hunter $17.99 58 72% 1.7k $31k (exactly $31,303) A.P.S
Swamp Keeper $3.99 82 96% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Maetdol Games
Smerch Battle Arena · EA $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Smerch Games
Forsaken Shores · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Kuldan Studio
Village Defenders $2.99 16 31% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Uberbax-Gaming
FIRE The First Dreamer $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) SIC Games
Polygon In $7.99 3 33% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Infinity Requiem Studio
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.