Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Survival game?

Survival + Arcade

Of 489 developers who shipped an Arcade Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 520 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 312 developers shipped in the last year and 520 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 520 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 489
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $449 → $449 → $599 → $359 → $359 → $359 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 489
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $71,298)
Developers, 2 yr 489
Released games 1,426
Announced 520
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 139,252 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $71k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 520 games are announced against 312 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
DRAGON BALL: THE BREAKERS older $29.99 4,983 50% 149k $4.5M (exactly $4,483,205) Dimps Corporation
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
Devil Daggers older $9.99 7,442 96% 223k $2.2M (exactly $2,230,367) Sorath
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Carmageddon: Rogue Shift $39.99 752 62% 23k $902k (exactly $902,174) 34BigThings srl
Monsters are Coming! $8.99 2,718 79% 82k $733k (exactly $733,045) Ludogram
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.