Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Arcade

Of 61 developers who shipped an Arcade Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×534 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 101 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $4.1k → $2.2k → $897 → $836 → $4.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,673)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 222
Announced 101
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Arcade; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, 2D Platformer
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 15,919 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Journey To The Savage Planet older $29.99 5,674 87% 170k $5.1M (exactly $5,104,898) Typhoon
Laika: Aged Through Blood older $19.99 5,938 91% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,561,019) Brainwash Gang
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
Out There Somewhere older $9.99 6,160 92% 185k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,152) MiniBoss
Wonder Boy: The Dragon's Trap older $19.99 1,980 86% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,187,406) Lizardcube
Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon older $9.99 3,823 94% 115k $1.1M (exactly $1,145,753) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd
Legacy of Kain: Ascendance $19.99 423 27% 13k $254k (exactly $253,673) Bit Bot Media
Kong: Survivor Instinct $24.99 338 71% 10k $253k (exactly $253,399) 7Levels
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets
Saint Slayer: Spear of Sacrilege $9.99 109 94% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) Lillymo Games
Vampire's Best Friend $9.99 73 98% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) SinksAdventure

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.