Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Shooter?

Shooter + Aliens

Of 293 developers who shipped an Alien Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 430 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 156 developers shipped in the last year and 430 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 430 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 293
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $359 → $390 → $1.9k → $300 → $539 → $539 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 293
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,585)
Top 5% $315k (exactly $314,842)
Developers, 2 yr 293
Released games 1,096
Announced 430
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 64,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 168 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 430 games are announced against 156 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Half-Life: Alyx older $59.99 93,001 98% 2.8M $167M (exactly $167,373,900) Valve
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Black Mesa older $19.99 134,753 94% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,811,374) Crowbar Collective
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Alien: Isolation older $39.99 48,591 92% 1.5M $58M (exactly $58,294,623) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Half-Life older $9.99 117,320 96% 3.5M $35M (exactly $35,160,804) Valve
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Species: Unknown · EA $9.99 9,437 94% 283k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) WanadevStudio
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.
Alien: Rogue Incursion VR $39.99 1,340 70% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,607,598) Survios
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Alien: Rogue Incursion Evolved Edition $29.99 899 72% 27k $809k (exactly $808,830) Survios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.