Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Romance

Only 17 developers shipped a Romance Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fields of Mistria, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×30 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21331 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $348k → $63k → $80k → $39k → $7.0k → $19k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $19k (exactly $18,936)
Top 25% $164k (exactly $163,691)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 48
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Farming Sim, Life Sim
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cozy, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 38,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + CapitalismPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 38 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Fabledom older $20.99 6,772 85% 203k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) Grenaa Games
Roots of Pacha older $24.99 3,779 93% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Soda Den
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town older $39.99 1,357 82% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,627,993) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios
Pawsome Resort · EA $11.99 147 83% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Pixel Puffs
Dream Life in the Country Side $14.99 87 83% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Moonlit Cafe
My Heaven's Dale $11.99 66 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) DreamingCat
Sky Harvest · EA $7.99 79 84% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Armored Cat
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.