Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Idler

Of 72 developers who shipped an Idler Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 67 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 67 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $958 → $1.3k → $1.8k → $2.1k (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 5% $240k (exactly $240,359)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 127
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Farming Sim, Simulation, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,514 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  3. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  5. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  7. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  10. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  11. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + CapitalismPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 38 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Farm Manager 2021 older $19.99 2,296 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,911) Cleversan Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Fish Game older $24.99 589 93% 18k $442k (exactly $441,573) A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink… (A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink Games)
Plantera older $2.99 4,518 88% 136k $405k (exactly $405,265) VaragtP
Your Big, Cute Monster Farm $7.99 1,097 78% 33k $263k (exactly $262,951) KaiPlay Studio
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
MR FARMBOY $9.99 480 85% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) mrdboy
Garden In! older $9.99 306 85% 9.2k $92k (exactly $91,708) Dramatic Iceberg
Sloppy Fields · EA $9.79 201 95% 6.0k $59k (exactly $59,034) PixelPanzone
Mushroom Nook $4.99 392 98% 12k $59k (exactly $58,682) HyperstasisGaming
Chop Chains $5.99 257 77% 7.7k $46k (exactly $46,183) Blasted Games
Desk Garden $2.99 476 84% 14k $43k (exactly $42,697) Siesta Studio
refarm $3.99 298 87% 8.9k $36k (exactly $35,671) otterhands

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.