Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Agriculture

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Agriculture Survival game?

Survival + Agriculture

Of 45 developers who shipped an Agriculture Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3649 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 86 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 86 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Agriculture
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $3.1k → $1.0k → $3.6k → $29k → $479 → $15k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Agriculture: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,652)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 134
Announced 86
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Agriculture; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Sandbox, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 39,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Settlement Survival older $21.49 7,703 85% 231k $5.0M (exactly $4,966,124) Gleamer Studio
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.