Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Sci-fi

Only 13 developers shipped a Sci-fi Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Blossom: The Seed of Life, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×821 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 38 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 38 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $2.4k → $2.7k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 5% $515k (exactly $515,307)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 45
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Utawarerumono: ZAN $39.99 85 77% 2.6k $102k (exactly $101,974) AQUAPLUS
Before The Green Moon older $11.99 138 94% 4.1k $50k (exactly $49,639) Turnfollow
Moons of Ardan · EA older $19.99 76 94% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Pandora Technology
Distant Bloom older $4.99 243 73% 7.3k $36k (exactly $36,377) Ember Trail
Cyber Farmer $9.99 55 45% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) FreeMind S.A.
Sigma World Online $4.99 37 70% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Crematorium of Time
Constructed · EA $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Gaming Project
Fruits Vs Veggies $6.99 13 100% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Ishbull Studios
Herba Project : Desktop Lab $3.99 11 45% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) IndieCain
SurvivalWorld · EA $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Robert De Leon
A Package For Space · EA $24.99 1 100% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Reading Time Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.