Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Roguelite

Of 25 developers who shipped a Roguelite Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×576 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $7.9k → $2.9k → $4.3k → $8.1k → $6.4k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,473)
Top 5% $362k (exactly $362,008)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 52
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Farming Sim, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,854 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Cartel Tycoon older $29.99 2,822 75% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Moon Moose
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Rana Card $12.99 1,183 89% 35k $461k (exactly $461,015) VisionRana
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Feastopia $13.99 211 77% 6.3k $89k (exactly $88,557) White Star Studio
Grimoire Groves $19.99 47 82% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) Stardust
Sun Down Survivors older $4.99 185 50% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,694) Pixel Sprout Studios
Deck of Harvest · EA $11.99 73 67% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) GameFarmer, Pone Games
RippleIsland Kyle and Cal’s Restaurant $27.99 22 68% 660 $18k (exactly $18,473) SUNSOFT
Hungry Meem $29.99 9 66% 270 $8.1k (exactly $8,097) Drecom Co., Ltd.
Ooze Keeper · EA $6.99 31 87% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) ZlitzGames
Trees Inc $4.99 43 83% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Mobmonks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.