Do I ship it?

Games › Agriculture › Agriculture + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Physics

Of 23 developers who shipped a Physics Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2068 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $597 → $898 → $1.3M → $7.0k → $180 → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,592)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 58
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Physics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Open World
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 10,685 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M Farming Simulator 15 2014 · $5.2M Train Sim World® 5 2024 · $3.6M Farming Simulator 2013: Titanium Edition 2013 · $1.8M Old Market Simulator 2024 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Farming Simulator 15 older $12.99 13,306 92% 399k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,348) GIANTS Software
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Farming Simulator 2013: Titanium Edition older $14.99 3,926 91% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,765,522) GIANTS Software
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Lawn Mowing Simulator older $19.99 2,126 74% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,962) Skyhook Games
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Farm Expert 2017 older $19.99 462 38% 14k $277k (exactly $277,061) Silden
Garden Simulator older $14.99 358 82% 11k $161k (exactly $160,993) PRODUKTIVKELLER Studios
Best Forklift Operator older $19.99 224 75% 6.7k $134k (exactly $134,333) Simmersiv
Terra Firma 2 · EA $19.99 200 92% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Working as Intended
Hillshade Farm · EA $19.50 66 62% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,610) NORTHSTAR Games
DIG VR $19.99 26 92% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Just Add Water
Meowingtons Simulator $5.99 48 95% 1.4k $8.6k (exactly $8,626) Oberha5li Studios
Horse Plinko $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Crawley, Womp
Gardener: Master of Trees and Flowers · EA $19.99 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Koksny.com
Combine 2 Pumpkins $4.99 19 100% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) 2Z

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.