Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Nature

Of 117 developers who shipped a Nature Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 202 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 202 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 202 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $15k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $2.8k → $2.4k (still earning) → $510 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,206)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 314
Announced 202
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Farming Sim, Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 21,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 202 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Rival Stars Horse Racing: Desktop Edition older $29.99 5,032 91% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) PikPok
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Farmer's Dynasty - Final Harvest Edition older $19.99 3,484 77% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,089,355) UMEO Studios
Staxel older $19.99 3,109 79% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,864,467) Plukit
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Cowboy Life Simulator · EA $18.99 1,120 89% 34k $638k (exactly $638,064) Odd Qubit
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Japanese Rural Life Adventure $24.99 238 80% 7.1k $178k (exactly $178,429) G-MODE, GAME START LLC
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.