Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Mining

Of 23 developers who shipped a Mining Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 240% on the market; 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 240% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $7.5k → $1.7M → $2.9k → $4.3k → $22k → $2.8k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $12k (exactly $11,510)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 63
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 240% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Mining; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Crafting, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 45,403 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
The Ranchers · EA $24.99 547 57% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) The Ranchers
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
Firefly Village $8.99 112 86% 3.4k $30k (exactly $30,206) Josh Koenig Games
Cropia $14.99 58 87% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Cropstone Studio
My Heaven's Dale $11.99 66 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) DreamingCat
Robert on Earth $7.99 93 83% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) Remrofsnart

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.