Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Medieval

Of 25 developers who shipped a Medieval Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 3650% on the market; 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 3650% on the market, 53 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $127k → $15k → $1.9k → $14k → $839 → $36k → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,999)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 72
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3650% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Life Sim, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 42,624 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Settlement Survival older $21.49 7,703 85% 231k $5.0M (exactly $4,966,124) Gleamer Studio
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Grand Ages: Medieval older $19.99 1,565 47% 47k $939k (exactly $938,530) Gaming Minds Studios
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
Herbals tycoon · EA $9.99 123 76% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Orange Paper Studio
Island Paradise $14.99 79 77% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,526) GSG
Cowgirl Maid Milk Cafe $14.99 39 76% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Kuroneko Cafe
Town Keeper $8.99 51 92% 1.5k $14k (exactly $13,755) Cuddle Code

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.