Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Agriculture Management game?

Agriculture + Management

Of 117 developers who shipped an Agriculture Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1436 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 199 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 199 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $5.5k → $14k → $14k → $6.3k → $1.8k → $3.3k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,967)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,949)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 311
Announced 199
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Resource Management, Farming Sim
Price point
$8.50 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.50.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 48,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Farming Simulator 17 older $14.99 23,063 93% 692k $10M (exactly $10,371,431) GIANTS Software
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Farming Simulator 15 older $12.99 13,306 92% 399k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,348) GIANTS Software
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.