Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Magic

Only 15 developers shipped a Magic Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Quinfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×7.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 14500% on the market; 43 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 14500% on the market, 43 announced, ×7.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $5.7k → $5.9k → $1.5k → $277k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $122k (exactly $121,869)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 14500% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 13,527 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Kitaria Fables older $19.99 1,253 73% 38k $751k (exactly $751,424) Twin Hearts, Secret Level Studios
The Magical Mixture Mill older $19.99 550 82% 17k $330k (exactly $329,835) Glowlight
Latex Dungeon older $9.99 969 82% 29k $290k (exactly $290,409) GODNASK, ZXC
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
Horticular: Build a Garden, Attract Wildlife older $19.99 391 88% 12k $234k (exactly $234,483) inDirection Games
Ritual of Raven $14.99 325 88% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Spellgarden Games
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Sloppy Fields · EA $9.79 201 95% 6.0k $59k (exactly $59,034) PixelPanzone
Grimoire Groves $19.99 47 82% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) Stardust
Cowgirl Maid Milk Cafe $14.99 39 76% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Kuroneko Cafe
Fungal Colony Sim 2 $7.99 13 61% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Skylor Beck
Fortune & Famine $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Simeous Business, Mid Level Meeple
NecroFarm $2.99 10 60% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Podigi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.