Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Cooking

Of 45 developers who shipped a Cooking Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 91 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $40k → $35k → $300 → $21k → $4.4k → $19k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,539)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,557)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 109
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Cooking; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Farming Sim, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 58,657 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Immortal Life older $16.99 3,853 79% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiFang Studio
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town older $39.99 1,357 82% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,627,993) Marvelous Inc.
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.