Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Collectathon

Of 32 developers who shipped a Collectathon Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 43 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $150 → $8.6k → $1.5k → $4.3k → $4.4k → $2.3k (still earning) → $510 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,652)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,992)
Top 5% $720k (exactly $719,960)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 70
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Collectathon; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Farming Sim, Sandbox
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,663 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Plantera older $2.99 4,518 88% 136k $405k (exactly $405,265) VaragtP
Monster Harvest older $16.99 458 53% 14k $233k (exactly $233,443) Maple Powered Games
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Research Story $14.99 309 94% 9.3k $139k (exactly $138,957) Petal Cat Games
Kamaeru: A Frog Refuge older $19.99 230 86% 6.9k $138k (exactly $137,931) Humble Reeds
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Deiland: Pocket Planet older $14.99 132 68% 4.0k $59k (exactly $59,360) Chibig
Desk Garden $2.99 476 84% 14k $43k (exactly $42,697) Siesta Studio
Garden Trills $14.99 87 96% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Yukim
Skystead Ranch $24.99 28 71% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) ToastieLabs
Woolly $6.49 74 90% 2.2k $14k (exactly $14,408) Anneka Tran
CRUFT $9.99 41 92% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) Go On Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.