Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Agriculture Base Building game?

Agriculture + Base Building

Of 72 developers who shipped an Agriculture Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3649 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 134 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 134 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $55k → $388k → $33k → $9.6k → $1.7k → $3.0k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,485)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,765)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 179
Announced 134
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Farming Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 43,393 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Settlement Survival older $21.49 7,703 85% 231k $5.0M (exactly $4,966,124) Gleamer Studio
Fabledom older $20.99 6,772 85% 203k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) Grenaa Games
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Cowboy Life Simulator · EA $18.99 1,120 89% 34k $638k (exactly $638,064) Odd Qubit
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.