Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Adventure
Should I ship an Adventure Turn-Based Strategy?
Turn-Based Strategy + Adventure
Of 436 developers who shipped an Adventure Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 760 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1009 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 760 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,380) |
| Top 5% | $634k (exactly $633,866) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 436 |
| Released games | 1,423 |
| Announced | 760 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Strategy, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 73,998 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 250 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 760 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + Cold WarFair
- + RomeFair
- + LootFair
- + MiningFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + TanksFair
- + SokobanFair
- + Top-Down ShooterFair
- + SpaceFair
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M 
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ 2014 · $55M 
Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M 
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader 2023 · $51M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | Persona 3 Reload | older | $59.99 | 43,497 95% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $78,281,551) | ATLUS |
| | South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ | older | $29.99 | 60,770 97% | 1.8M | $55M (exactly $54,674,769) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
 | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
 | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
 | Marvel's Midnight Suns | older | $59.99 | 17,060 82% | 512k | $31M (exactly $30,702,882) | Firaxis Games |
 | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Solasta II | · EA | $39.99 | 2,931 75% | 88k | $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) | Tactical Adventures |
 | Sunderfolk | $49.99 | 1,890 93% | 57k | $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) | Secret Door | |
 | The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle | $17.99 | 4,595 67% | 138k | $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) | ChillyRoom | |
 | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
 | The Last Flame | $19.99 | 2,744 85% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) | Hotloop | |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon | $59.99 | 710 93% | 21k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | Dark Deity 2 | $24.99 | 1,583 89% | 47k | $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) | Sword & Axe LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.